Budget Planner Interactive-Mint.com
China has surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, now second only to that of the GDP of the Member USA.
The news was shocking: economists had predicted that this could happen for a while 'time. But it still served as a wake-up call to the fact that emerging economies are growing at a much faster rate than developed countries.
Sure, the U.S. is still the world leader in terms of GDP (note that we are talking about GDP, not GDP per capita), but for how long?
The simplest estimate we have found so far is this Global Economics Paper published by Goldman Sachs (GS) in March 2007. Although more than three years, his predictions are surprisingly accurate. The paper compares the estimates of GDP for 22 countries in the past five years, starting from actual data for 2006 and through 2050. It is estimated China's GDP in 2010 to $ 4,667,000,000, compared with $ 4,604,000,000 for Japan.
Regarding the question posed above, the answer is 2030 and since then, China's GDP is 25.61 trillion U.S. dollars, according to the paper by Goldman, while the U.S. will be $ 22,817,000,000.
For a visual presentation of GDP growth over the next 40 years, take a look at our interactive infographic above. And if those numbers seem incredibly high growth rates, keep in mind that you are looking at a period long enough. In India, the cumulative growth of GDP is 2,899%, for example, making India the economy's fastest growing in the world in terms of GDP. For more details, as well as the numbers of per capita GDP, see Global Economics Paper.
The news was shocking: economists had predicted that this could happen for a while 'time. But it still served as a wake-up call to the fact that emerging economies are growing at a much faster rate than developed countries.
Sure, the U.S. is still the world leader in terms of GDP (note that we are talking about GDP, not GDP per capita), but for how long?
The simplest estimate we have found so far is this Global Economics Paper published by Goldman Sachs (GS) in March 2007. Although more than three years, his predictions are surprisingly accurate. The paper compares the estimates of GDP for 22 countries in the past five years, starting from actual data for 2006 and through 2050. It is estimated China's GDP in 2010 to $ 4,667,000,000, compared with $ 4,604,000,000 for Japan.
Regarding the question posed above, the answer is 2030 and since then, China's GDP is 25.61 trillion U.S. dollars, according to the paper by Goldman, while the U.S. will be $ 22,817,000,000.
For a visual presentation of GDP growth over the next 40 years, take a look at our interactive infographic above. And if those numbers seem incredibly high growth rates, keep in mind that you are looking at a period long enough. In India, the cumulative growth of GDP is 2,899%, for example, making India the economy's fastest growing in the world in terms of GDP. For more details, as well as the numbers of per capita GDP, see Global Economics Paper.
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